Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 2.370158 2.839415 3.365406 3.996911 4.732645 5.560817 6.561637
2025-12-07 1.594113 2.157290 2.857840 3.786312 4.976616 6.442660 8.375121
2025-12-14 1.193364 1.787700 2.593159 3.749252 5.347713 7.458661 10.431524
2025-12-21 0.935361 1.530878 2.399751 3.733956 5.698503 8.445580 12.526993
2025-12-28 0.809695 1.429361 2.391732 3.955130 6.379488 9.930712 15.438703
2026-01-04 0.689649 1.306804 2.322447 4.059767 6.883106 11.194409 18.141332
2026-01-11 0.607147 1.227263 2.302681 4.229134 7.492377 12.660363 21.268389
2026-01-18 0.514917 1.109954 2.196652 4.233051 7.823624 13.712082 23.834384
2026-01-25 0.420682 0.968139 2.021502 4.086298 7.874141 14.302453 25.697193
2026-02-01 0.344210 0.844765 1.858136 3.932670 7.885256 14.814280 27.456475
2026-02-08 0.296491 0.771710 1.779185 3.923630 8.149462 15.772776 30.038806
2026-02-15 0.257975 0.710743 1.714059 3.930333 8.438827 16.793332 32.801362
2026-02-22 0.220286 0.644428 1.628869 3.888741 8.638867 17.685985 35.442376
2026-03-01 0.178251 0.557016 1.481673 3.694362 8.511211 17.957010 36.972496
2026-03-08 0.153105 0.507705 1.413272 3.661379 8.708077 18.859298 39.749173
2026-03-15 0.132806 0.466652 1.357211 3.647371 8.941142 19.848456 42.763766
2026-03-22 0.126109 0.464056 1.397204 3.864258 9.698658 21.946342 48.092676
2026-03-29 0.114931 0.444839 1.390593 3.966831 10.210588 23.581413 52.615383
2026-04-05 0.107365 0.435384 1.408599 4.132754 10.883045 25.600379 58.049971
2026-04-12 0.094857 0.405884 1.365679 4.136600 11.176890 26.839242 61.967958
2026-04-19 0.079510 0.361690 1.272025 3.992855 11.101462 27.273245 64.235350
2026-04-26 0.066350 0.321236 1.181234 3.842387 10.990619 27.615855 66.326559
2026-05-03 0.058548 0.299224 1.143237 3.833534 11.232206 28.764006 70.228162